Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury on 1 August 2022?
Started
Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The yield on a 10-Year Treasury bond is closely watched for a number of reasons (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) (FRED). As of 22 June 2022, the yield was 3.16%.
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The question closed "Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 2.60 | 4% | |
Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive | 96% | |
More than 3.00 but less than 3.40 | 0% | |
Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 3.80 but less than 4.20 | 0% | |
4.20 or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 56 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 209 | |
Number of Forecasts | 286 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 592 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |