Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury on 1 August 2022?

The yield on a 10-Year Treasury bond is closely watched for a number of reasons (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) (FRED). As of 22 June 2022, the yield was 3.16%.

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The question closed "Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.60 4%
Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive 96%
More than 3.00 but less than 3.40 0%
Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive 0%
More than 3.80 but less than 4.20 0%
4.20 or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 56
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 286
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.095
2.
-0.076
3.
-0.068
4.
-0.066
5.
-0.062

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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