Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the daily reported natural gas in storage in the EU for 31 July 2022?

As the war in Ukraine continues, Russian deliveries of natural gas to Europe have been reduced, with the EU fearing further cuts as it tries to increase storage for the coming winter (ABC News, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using "Gas in storage TWh" data as first reported by Gas Infrastructure Europe (Gas Infrastructure Europe, in the row for "EU" and under the "View" column at the very end, the relevant data can be viewed by selecting the first icon for "Historical data"). Whether the data reported are Confirmed or Estimated is immaterial. "TWh" means "Terawatt hour" (Statistics Finland).

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The question closed "Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 650.0 TWh 0%
Between 650.0 TWh and 700.0 TWh, inclusive 0%
More than 700.0 TWh but less than 750.0 TWh 0%
Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive 100%
More than 800.0 TWh 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 185
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059
2.
-0.056
3.
-0.039
4.
-0.032
5.
-0.029

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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