Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?

Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Mortgage rates in the US have risen considerably in 2022 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 21 July 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 5.54%.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.40%
No 96.60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 73
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 273
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.032
2.
-0.032
3.
-0.032
4.
-0.032
5.
-0.032

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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