Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?

Mortgage rates in the US have risen considerably in 2022 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 21 July 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 5.54%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 16.50% +0.00% +1.24% -20.56%
No 83.50% -0.00% -1.24% +20.56%

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