Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?

Amid fears of an energy crisis due to threats to Russian natural gas supplies, the Council adopted a regulation setting a voluntary natural gas consumption cut of 15% that could become mandatory upon the declaration of a "Union alert" (US News & World Report, Council of the European Union - Press Release, Council of the European Union - COUNCIL REGULATION on coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas, see Article 4). The question would close upon the date of the official decision being made by the Council, irrespective of the date of publication in the Official Journal.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 October 2022 4.00% -0.39% -1.00% -2.00%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022 41.00% -0.25% +0.00% +2.00%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023 26.00% +0.68% +0.00% +0.00%
Not before 1 April 2023 29.00% -0.04% +1.00% +0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username