The Economist asks:

When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?

Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Amid fears of an energy crisis due to threats to Russian natural gas supplies, the Council adopted a regulation setting a voluntary natural gas consumption cut of 15% that could become mandatory upon the declaration of a "Union alert" (US News & World Report, Council of the European Union - Press Release, Council of the European Union - COUNCIL REGULATION on coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas, see Article 4). The question would close upon the date of the official decision being made by the Council, irrespective of the date of publication in the Official Journal.

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The question closed "Not before 1 April 2023" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 October 2022 0%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022 0%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023 2%
Not before 1 April 2023 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 254
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 741
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.213
2.
-0.201
3.
-0.194
4.
-0.188
5.
-0.166

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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