Started Sep 23, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?

Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (AP, US News & World Report). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would not be necessary for resolution. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). "Roughly even chance" or "roughly even odds" without an explicit statement that the probability is greater than 50% would not count. For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 42.72% +0.11% +1.05% +17.01%
No 57.28% -0.11% -1.05% -17.01%

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