Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (AP, US News & World Report). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would not be necessary for resolution. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). "Roughly even chance" or "roughly even odds" without an explicit statement that the probability is greater than 50% would not count. For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).

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