Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (AP, US News & World Report). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would not be necessary for resolution. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). "Roughly even chance" or "roughly even odds" without an explicit statement that the probability is greater than 50% would not count. For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.69% | |
| No | 91.31% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 168 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 700 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
