Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?

Started Sep 23, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Various group continue to voice concern that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability (AP, US News & World Report). A public statement from a US military or federal agency would count. The testing or detonation of a nuclear device would not be necessary for resolution. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count ( "Roughly even chance" or "roughly even odds" without an explicit statement that the probability is greater than 50% would not count. For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 9.92% -1.83% -1.10% -3.90%
No 90.08% +1.83% +1.10% +3.90%

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