What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
The EU is facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term (NASDAQ, CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the final estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the first quarter of 2023," expected in early June 2023 (FRED). The value for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023) will be divided by the value for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) to determine the rate of real GDP growth, which can be done on the FRED page by 1) clicking "EDIT GRAPH," and 2) changing "Units:" to "Percent Change."
The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Lower by 2.0% or more||1%|
|Lower by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive||3%|
|Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.0%||36%|
|Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive||54%|
|Higher by more than 1.0% but less than 2.0%||5%|
|Higher by 2.0% or more||1%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||46|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 219|
|Number of Forecasts||182|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 613|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|