What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?

Started Oct 07, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The EU is facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term (NASDAQ, CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the final estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the first quarter of 2023," expected in early June 2023 (FRED). The value for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023) will be divided by the value for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) to determine the rate of real GDP growth, which can be done on the FRED page by 1) clicking "EDIT GRAPH," and 2) changing "Units:" to "Percent Change."

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The question closed "Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by 2.0% or more 1%
Lower by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive 3%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.0% 36%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive 54%
Higher by more than 1.0% but less than 2.0% 5%
Higher by 2.0% or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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