Started Oct 07, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?

The EU is facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term (NASDAQ, CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the final estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the "GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the first quarter of 2023," expected in early June 2023 (FRED). The value for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023) will be divided by the value for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) to determine the rate of real GDP growth, which can be done on the FRED page by 1) clicking "EDIT GRAPH," and 2) changing "Units:" to "Percent Change."

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower by 2.0% or more 7.00% +0.00% +0.00% -3.00%
Lower by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive 13.00% +0.00% +0.00% -11.00%
Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.0% 45.00% -1.00% -5.00% +0.00%
Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive 32.00% +1.00% +4.00% +12.00%
Higher by more than 1.0% but less than 2.0% 3.00% +0.00% +1.00% +2.00%
Higher by 2.0% or more 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

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