Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many US states will have five or more public hydrogen fueling stations as of 29 December 2023, according to Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)?

Started Oct 25, 2022 09:30PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As US policy pushes for more alternative fuels, there are efforts to expand the availability and use of hydrogen fuel (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the AFDC at approximately 5:00PM ET on Friday 29 December 2023 (AFDC, click "Download Results" for a file listing all public stations and their locations). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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The question closed "Zero or 1" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Zero or 1 87%
2 to 4 8%
5 to 7 2%
8 to 10 1%
11 to 13 1%
14 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012572
2.
-0.012434
3.
-0.012361
4.
-0.011958
5.
-0.011844

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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