Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the total number of hydrogen vehicles registered in the US in 2023, according to Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
As US policy pushes for more alternative fuels, there are efforts to expand the availability and use of hydrogen fuel (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by AFDC, expected in 2024 (AFDC). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
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The question closed "More than 16,500" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 12,000 | 12% | |
| Between 12,000 and 13,500, inclusive | 8% | |
| More than 13,500 but fewer than 15,000 | 17% | |
| Between 15,000 and 16,500, inclusive | 20% | |
| More than 16,500 | 44% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 95 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 170 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 314 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 500 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
