Started Oct 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

ericbays asks:

Will there be a railroad union strike in the United States in 2022?

Twelve labor unions and dozens of railroad companies have been negotiating for new collective bargaining agreements since 2019, and there is a threat of strikes unless agreements are reached (Axios, AP, National Railway Labor Conference, CNBC). The earliest a strike could begin is November 2022 (Politico). For the purposes of this question, a strike need not include all railroad workers to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.04%
No 98.96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 194
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022
2.
-0.022
3.
-0.021

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username