The Economist asks:

What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in April 2023?

Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Eurozone inflation hit the highest level on record according to preliminary data for October 2022, stoked by energy prices and continued fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Deutsche Welle, Euronews, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat, excluding Flash Estimate data (Eurostat, ECB). Croatia is scheduled to join the Eurozone on 1 January 2023, so the "GEO" segment used for resolution will likely be "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)" (ECB). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for "Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)" for April 2022 was 7.4%.

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The question closed "Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.0% 1%
Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 8%
More than 5.0% but less than 7.0% 47%
Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive 35%
More than 9.0% but less than 11.0% 6%
Between 11.0% and 13.0%, inclusive 2%
More than 13.0% but less than 15.0% 1%
15.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 209
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 568
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.106
2.
-0.106
3.
-0.099
4.
-0.097
5.
-0.097

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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