UBS asks:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Inflation in the US is expected to slow in 2023 versus 2022 (The Hill, US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for March 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in April 2023 (BLS). For March 2022, the change was 8.5%.
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The question closed "Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Up by less than 1.5% or down | 1% | |
| Up by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive | 3% | |
| Up by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5% | 10% | |
| Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive | 65% | |
| Up by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5% | 18% | |
| Up by 7.5% or more | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 211 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 520 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
