UBS asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?

Started Dec 02, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Inflation in the US is expected to slow in 2023 versus 2022 (The Hill, US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for March 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in April 2023 (BLS). For March 2022, the change was 8.5%.

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The question closed "Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Up by less than 1.5% or down 1%
Up by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 3%
Up by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5% 10%
Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive 65%
Up by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5% 18%
Up by 7.5% or more 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 520
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.125
3.
-0.124
4.
-0.122
5.
-0.11

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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