UBS asks:

What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 11 April 2023?

Started Dec 02, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 11, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Sanctions on Russian oil, demand concerns for China, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (CNBC, US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 10 April 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).

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The question closed "Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive" with a closing date of 11 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $40.00 per barrel 0%
Between $40.00 and $50.00 per barrel, inclusive 1%
More than $50.00 but less than $60.00 per barrel 2%
Between $60.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive 6%
More than $70.00 but less than $80.00 per barrel 20%
Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive 59%
More than $90.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel 9%
Between $100.00 and $110.00 per barrel, inclusive 2%
More than $110.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel 1%
$120.00 or more per barrel 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 251
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 792
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.112899
2.
-0.106788
3.
-0.101656
4.
-0.095955
5.
-0.095645

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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