The Economist asks:

What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2023?

Started Jan 27, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will continue its monetary policy tightening despite risks to the US labor market (Economist, AP, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in September 2023 (BLS).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%" with a closing date of 1 September 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.5% 21%
3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5% 77%
4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.5% 2%
5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.5% 0%
6.5% or higher, but lower than 7.5% 0%
7.5% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 354
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.043675
2.
-0.043543
3.
-0.043283
5.
-0.043151

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username