Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 6.50% before 3 June 2023?
Closed Jun 03, 2023 07:01AM UTC
With the fallout from bank failures being felt throughout the financial system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) jumped in mid-March 2023 (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 16 March 2023, the spread was 4.93%.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 June 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.28% | |
| No | 99.72% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 181 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
