Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 6.50% before 3 June 2023?

Started Mar 17, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2023 07:01AM UTC

With the fallout from bank failures being felt throughout the financial system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) jumped in mid-March 2023 (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 16 March 2023, the spread was 4.93%.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.28%
No 99.72%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 181
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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