Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 6.50% before 3 June 2023?

Started Mar 17, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 03, 2023 07:01AM UTC

With the fallout from bank failures being felt throughout the financial system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) jumped in mid-March 2023 (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 16 March 2023, the spread was 4.93%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 0.39% -0.28% -0.33% -10.85%
No 99.61% +0.28% +0.33% +10.85%

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