Nonrival asks:

When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?

Started Mar 24, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

On 7 March 2023, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the RESTRICT Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from performing transactions in the US (US News & World Report, NBC News, Sen. Mark Warner, TechCrunch, Congress.gov - S.686). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2024" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 11 August 2023 0%
Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023 1%
Not before 1 January 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 326
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118
2.
-0.115
3.
-0.115
4.
-0.111

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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