Foxes Ask:

Will the jury in US Dominion's (Dominion's) civil trial against Fox News Network (Fox News) find Fox News liable for defamation and nonpunitive damages?

Started Apr 07, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 18, 2023 07:58PM UTC

Dominion has sued Fox News for defamation over what it calls false reporting on claims that Dominion was part of a conspiracy to tamper with 2020 US presidential election results, and the trial is scheduled to begin 17 April 2023 (The Hill, Delaware Courts - Motions for Summary Judgment 31 March 2023). Dominion Voting Systems, Inc. and Dominion Voting Systems Corporation are both subsidiaries of US Dominion and are considered part of US Dominion for the purposes of this question (Casetext). "Nonpunitive damages" are any damages that are not punitive, and awards of interest, expenses, costs, and attorneys' fees would not count (O’Dwyer & Bernstien). If the case is resolved before a jury finds for damages (e.g., a settlement) or a mistrial is declared, the question would close "No." If the trial is still underway as of 31 May 2023, the suspend date will be extended accordingly.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 April 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages in the amount of less than $1 million 1%
Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages between $1 million and $100 million, inclusive 22%
Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages greater than $100 million but less than $1 billion 21%
Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages of $1 billion or more 12%
No 44%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.984
2.
-0.665
3.
-0.556
4.
-0.545
5.
-0.484

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username