Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023?

Started Apr 12, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Various political and economic factors have observers speculating whether the dominance of the US dollar in global finance may wane (The National, Business Insider). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using "World Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves" data as reported by the IMF, expected in March 2024 (IMF). As of launch, the IMF reported that 58.36% of allocated reserve were in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "More than 58.00% but less than 60.00%" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 56.00% 8%
Between 56.00% and 58.00%, inclusive 15%
More than 58.00% but less than 60.00% 71%
60.00% or more 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 202
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username