Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023?
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Various political and economic factors have observers speculating whether the dominance of the US dollar in global finance may wane (The National, Business Insider). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using "World Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves" data as reported by the IMF, expected in March 2024 (IMF). As of launch, the IMF reported that 58.36% of allocated reserve were in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 56.00% | 1.73% | -0.27% | -0.27% | -7.27% |
| Between 56.00% and 58.00%, inclusive | 29.87% | -1.13% | -1.13% | -6.13% |
| More than 58.00% but less than 60.00% | 61.93% | +1.93% | +2.93% | +10.93% |
| 60.00% or more | 6.47% | -0.53% | -1.53% | +2.47% |