Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Various political and economic factors have observers speculating whether the dominance of the US dollar in global finance may wane (The National, Business Insider). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using "World Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves" data as reported by the IMF, expected in March 2024 (IMF). As of launch, the IMF reported that 58.36% of allocated reserve were in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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The question closed "More than 58.00% but less than 60.00%" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 56.00% | 8% | |
Between 56.00% and 58.00%, inclusive | 15% | |
More than 58.00% but less than 60.00% | 71% | |
60.00% or more | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 39 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
Number of Forecasts | 202 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |