Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will all military forces of the Russian Federation cease to be in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in Ukraine?
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Ukraine hopes to expel Russian forces from the whole of the country, though observers note that this will be difficult (Defense One). For the purposes of this question, "military forces of the Russian Federation" includes forces under the command of the Russian Ministry of Defence and military contractor groups (e.g., Wagner Group and Redut). The continued presence of "People's militias" associated with the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics would be immaterial, as would the location of any prisoner of war. Ambiguous reporting regarding the presence of military forces of the Russian Federation will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours||Change in last week||Change in last month|
|Before 1 July 2023||0.00%||+0.00%||+0.00%||+0.00%|
|Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023||0.00%||+0.00%||-1.00%||-2.00%|
|Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024||5.00%||+0.00%||+0.00%||-3.00%|
|Not before 1 July 2024||95.00%||+0.00%||+1.00%||+5.00%|