JMcW asks:

Will UN-sanctioned national elections be held in Libya in 2023?

Started Apr 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Abdoulaye Bathily, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, has said that elections in the war-torn country are possible in 2023, though obstacles remain (UN Security Council, Libya Herald, US Institute of Peace). The holding of either presidential or parliamentary elections would count. The question would close early upon an official announcement from the UN that elections will not take place in 2023.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.78%
No 99.22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 165
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009187
3.
-0.00811
4.
-0.007556
5.
-0.006884

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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