Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will federal legislation reducing or eliminating clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits become law before 1 January 2024?

Started May 16, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden in 2022, tax credits were created for the production of clean hydrogen and expanded for carbon sequestration, but Republicans have proposed the repeal of clean hydrogen tax credits and discussed changing carbon sequestration tax credits (The Hill, Resources for the Future, Brownstein, 26 U.S. Code § 45V - Clean Hydrogen, 26 U.S. Code § 45Q - Carbon Sequestration). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and pertinent changes to sections other than 45V and 45Q that would reduce or eliminate clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits in terms of amount or duration would count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.00%
Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits 4.00% +0.00% +3.00% +3.00%
No 93.00% +0.00% -3.00% -2.00%

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