Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will federal legislation reducing or eliminating clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits become law before 1 January 2024?

Started May 16, 2023 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden in 2022, tax credits were created for the production of clean hydrogen and expanded for carbon sequestration, but Republicans have proposed the repeal of clean hydrogen tax credits and discussed changing carbon sequestration tax credits (The Hill, Resources for the Future, Brownstein, 26 U.S. Code § 45V - Clean Hydrogen, 26 U.S. Code § 45Q - Carbon Sequestration). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and pertinent changes to sections other than 45V and 45Q that would reduce or eliminate clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits in terms of amount or duration would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits 2%
Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits 1%
Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits 3%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 56
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 140
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.016
2.
-0.015
3.
-0.015
4.
-0.014
5.
-0.012

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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