Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will federal legislation reducing or eliminating clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits become law before 1 January 2024?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden in 2022, tax credits were created for the production of clean hydrogen and expanded for carbon sequestration, but Republicans have proposed the repeal of clean hydrogen tax credits and discussed changing carbon sequestration tax credits (The Hill, Resources for the Future, Brownstein, 26 U.S. Code § 45V - Clean Hydrogen, 26 U.S. Code § 45Q - Carbon Sequestration). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and pertinent changes to sections other than 45V and 45Q that would reduce or eliminate clean hydrogen and/or carbon sequestration tax credits in terms of amount or duration would count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits | 2% | |
Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits | 1% | |
Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits | 3% | |
No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 56 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 140 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |