What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
While the US unemployment rate in April 2023 tied for the lowest in 70 years, there are signals that the labor market is cooling amid general recession fears (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in January 2024 (BLS).
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The question closed "3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.5% | 5% | |
| 3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0% | 91% | |
| 4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5% | 4% | |
| 4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0% | 0% | |
| 5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5% | 0% | |
| 5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0% | 0% | |
| 6.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 61 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 330 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
