What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2023?

Started May 19, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While the US unemployment rate in April 2023 tied for the lowest in 70 years, there are signals that the labor market is cooling amid general recession fears (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in January 2024 (BLS).

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The question closed "3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.5% 5%
3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0% 91%
4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5% 4%
4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0% 0%
5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5% 0%
5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0% 0%
6.0% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 330
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.063073
2.
-0.051953
3.
-0.051611
4.
-0.050544
5.
-0.044561

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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