Between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the US experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth?
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third (BEA - Release Schedule). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using the advance estimate for the second quarter of 2024 (Q2 2024), expected in July 2024, and the third estimates for all other quarters, typically released in the subsequent quarter. The third estimate for Q1 2023 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent (BEA - GDP Third Estimate Q1 2023). Prior to the question's launch, the last time the quarter-on-quarter US GDP growth rate was negative was Q2 2022 (BEA - Third Estimate Q2 2022).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.00% | 0% | +0.30% | 0% |
| No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth | 7.00% | 0% | -0.17% | -1.00% |
| No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth | 92.00% | 0% | -0.13% | +1.00% |