belikewater asks:

What will be the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for February 2024?

Started Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While grain prices have fallen from their historic highs reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and a rice export ban in India may push prices higher (AP, CNBC, India Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Axios). The question will be suspended on 29 February 2024 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for February 2024, expected in early March 2024 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Cereals Price Index for February 2023 was 146.7. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."

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The question closed "Between 106.0 and 118.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 106.0 1%
Between 106.0 and 118.0, inclusive 22%
More than 118.0 but less than 130.0 73%
Between 130.0 and 142.0, inclusive 3%
More than 142.0 but less than 154.0 1%
Between 154.0 and 166.0, inclusive 0%
More than 166.0 but less than 178.0 0%
178.0 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 35
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 270
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.14507
2.
-0.115806
3.
-0.101463
4.
-0.09527
5.
-0.092214

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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