Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 29 December 2023?
Closed Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The Bank of Japan has been loosening its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in recent years, with more changes or even an abolition of the YCC expected in the near future (CNBC, US News & World Report, Bank of Japan). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 28 July 2023 was 0.5560%.
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The question closed "Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 0.5000% | 1% | |
| Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive | 99% | |
| More than 0.7500% but less than 1.0000% | 0% | |
| Between 1.0000% and 1.2500%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 1.2500% but less than 1.5000% | 0% | |
| 1.5000% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 225 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
