Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 29 December 2023?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The Bank of Japan has been loosening its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in recent years, with more changes or even an abolition of the YCC expected in the near future (CNBC, US News & World Report, Bank of Japan). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 28 July 2023 was 0.5560%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 0.5000% 1.00% +0.00% -0.80% +0.50%
Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive 55.20% +1.60% +2.70% +36.00%
More than 0.7500% but less than 1.0000% 41.60% -1.10% -1.60% -14.90%
Between 1.0000% and 1.2500%, inclusive 2.20% -0.50% -0.30% -20.90%
More than 1.2500% but less than 1.5000% 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.70%
1.5000% or more 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

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