Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 29 December 2023?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The Bank of Japan has been loosening its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in recent years, with more changes or even an abolition of the YCC expected in the near future (CNBC, US News & World Report, Bank of Japan). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 28 July 2023 was 0.5560%.

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The question closed "Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.5000% 1%
Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive 99%
More than 0.7500% but less than 1.0000% 0%
Between 1.0000% and 1.2500%, inclusive 0%
More than 1.2500% but less than 1.5000% 0%
1.5000% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 225
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.087792
2.
-0.073347
4.
-0.060581
5.
-0.034501

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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