What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024?

Started Aug 11, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The rate of inflation in the US is well off historic highs in 2022, but when it will fall to the Federal Reserve's 2% target remains in focus (CNBC, USA Today, NBC News, Investopedia - CPI). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2024 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in July 2024 (BLS). As of the launch of this question, the change was 3.0% for June 2023.

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The question closed "Up by at least 2.4%, but less than 3.2%" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Up by less than 0.8% or down 0%
Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6% 0%
Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4% 1%
Up by at least 2.4%, but less than 3.2% 53%
Up by at least 3.2%, but less than 4.0% 46%
Up by at least 4.0%, but less than 4.8% 0%
Up by at least 4.8%, but less than 5.6% 0%
Up by 5.6% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 389
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046729
2.
-0.04513
3.
-0.040727
4.
-0.038721
5.
-0.032188

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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