When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?

Started Aug 25, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Amid the loss of nearly all natural gas exports from Russia and the coming of an El Niño winter, the Council of the European Union extended a regulation setting a voluntary natural gas consumption cut of 15% that could become mandatory upon the declaration of a "Union alert" (Council of the European Union - Press Release, Council of the European Union - REGULATION, Yahoo). The question would close upon the date of the official decision being made by the Council, irrespective of the date of publication in the Official Journal.

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The question closed "Not before 1 April 2024" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2024 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024 0%
Not before 1 April 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 319
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003097
2.
-0.003097
3.
-0.002944
5.
-0.002774

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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