Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2023 and 30 April 2024, will Russia or Belarus publicly announce that it has moved a nuclear weapon or weapons into Ukraine?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As fighting continues in Ukraine with Russian nuclear weapons now in Belarus, there are continuing concerns that Moscow may move nuclear weapons into Ukraine (BBC, ABC News, Politico). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia or Belarus' detonation of a nuclear device in Ukraine would be considered a Russian or Belarusian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into Ukraine. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 128
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 476
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00091
2.
-0.000903
4.
-0.000897
5.
-0.000897

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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