Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2023 and 30 April 2024, will Russia or Belarus publicly announce that it has moved a nuclear weapon or weapons into Ukraine?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As fighting continues in Ukraine with Russian nuclear weapons now in Belarus, there are continuing concerns that Moscow may move nuclear weapons into Ukraine (BBC, ABC News, Politico). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia or Belarus' detonation of a nuclear device in Ukraine would be considered a Russian or Belarusian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into Ukraine. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.53% +0.00% -0.54% -0.33%
No 96.47% +0.00% +0.54% +0.33%

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