Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 May 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, Russia in Global Affairs, Newsweek). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% -2.27%
No 98.00% +0.00% +0.00% +2.27%

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