Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 May 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, Russia in Global Affairs, Newsweek). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 151
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 445
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username