Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 May 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?
Closing May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, Russia in Global Affairs, Newsweek). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission).