Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 May 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?
Closed May 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, Russia in Global Affairs, Newsweek). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community. A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 151 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 445 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 554 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
