Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (International Crisis Group). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Somalia" under "Eastern Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to "Battles," 108 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 269 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," 3 attributed to "Strategic developments," and none attributed to "Riots" or "Protests").

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The question closed "Fewer than 2,400" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 2,400 80%
Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive 5%
More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000 2%
Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive 12%
More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600 1%
5,600 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.175039
2.
-0.170775
3.
-0.15216
4.
-0.107767
5.
-0.077217

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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