Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total violent conflict events will occur in Northern Mali, according to ACLED?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

MINUSMA, a UN peacekeeping mission established to stabilize Northern Mali after a Tuareg uprising in 2012, was ordered to leave the country by its military government in mid-2023, which has raised fears of new violence (France 24, MINUSMA, International Crisis Group, UN - Africa Renewal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select only "Battles," "Violence against civilians," and "Explosions/Remote violence," (3) for "REGION," select only "Gao," "Kidal," and "Tombouctou" under "Mali" under "Western Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 99 total qualifying events in the second quarter of 2023 in Northern Mali (19 "Battles," 72 events of "Violence against civilians," and 8 "Explosions/Remote violence").

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The question closed "Between 200 and 225, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 100 12%
Between 100 and 125, inclusive 4%
More than 125 but fewer than 150 8%
Between 150 and 175, inclusive 5%
More than 175 but fewer than 200 6%
Between 200 and 225, inclusive 27%
More than 225 39%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.421751
4.
-0.40866
5.
-0.289847

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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