Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 29 September 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the UN Security Council increase the number of troops authorized in Somalia after 30 June 2024 under the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)?
Closed Jun 28, 2024 05:00PM UTC
ATMIS, an African Union mission in Somalia there to support the fight against Al-Shabaab and other groups, was intended to withdraw in 4 phases (UN Security Council Resolution 2687 (2023), ATMIS, Amani Africa). As of the launch of this question, the Phase 3 withdrawal is due to be completed by the end of June 2024 (UN Security Council Resolution 2628 (2022), see §28). This follows phase 2 whose deadline was extended to the end of 2023 (Africa News). An increase in permitted personnel after June 2024 or an extension in time at higher numbers would count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 June 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 35% | |
No | 66% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 30 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 176 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |