Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 29 September 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the UN Security Council increase the number of troops authorized in Somalia after 30 June 2024 under the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 28, 2024 05:00PM UTC

ATMIS, an African Union mission in Somalia there to support the fight against Al-Shabaab and other groups, was intended to withdraw in 4 phases (UN Security Council Resolution 2687 (2023), ATMIS, Amani Africa). As of the launch of this question, the Phase 3 withdrawal is due to be completed by the end of June 2024 (UN Security Council Resolution 2628 (2022), see §28). This follows phase 2 whose deadline was extended to the end of 2023 (Africa News). An increase in permitted personnel after June 2024 or an extension in time at higher numbers would count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 35%
No 66%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 176
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.017521
2.
-0.81416
3.
-0.686319
4.
-0.587015
5.
-0.51611

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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