Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 29 September 2023 and 30 June 2024, will the UN Security Council increase the number of troops authorized in Somalia after 30 June 2024 under the mandate for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

ATMIS, an African Union mission in Somalia there to support the fight against Al-Shabaab and other groups, was intended to withdraw in 4 phases (UN Security Council Resolution 2687 (2023), ATMIS, Amani Africa). As of the launch of this question, the Phase 3 withdrawal is due to be completed by the end of June 2024 (UN Security Council Resolution 2628 (2022), see §28). This follows phase 2 whose deadline was extended to the end of 2023 (Africa News). An increase in permitted personnel after June 2024 or an extension in time at higher numbers would count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 20.50% -0.10% -1.30% -0.80%
No 79.50% +0.10% +1.30% +0.80%

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