Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will France publicly announce that it will resume providing official development assistance (ODA) to Mali before 1 January 2025?
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
In November 2022, France announced that it was halting ODA to Mali due to the military government's ties to the Russian Wagner Group (Radio France Internationale, Agence Française de Développement, Radio France Internationale). The date an announced resumption would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if/when the country returns to civilian rule) would not count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | |
No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 52 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183 | |
Number of Forecasts | 167 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |