Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will France publicly announce that it will resume providing official development assistance (ODA) to Mali before 1 January 2025?

Started Sep 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

In November 2022, France announced that it was halting ODA to Mali due to the military government's ties to the Russian Wagner Group (Radio France Internationale, Agence Française de Développement, Radio France Internationale). The date an announced resumption would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if/when the country returns to civilian rule) would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 167
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.010418
2.
-0.010282
4.
-0.009915

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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