Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of either entering Kosovo without authorization or firing a weapon or weapons into Kosovo?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Tensions in Kosovo have escalated in 2023, with ethnic Serb protesters clashing with NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces in late May, a firefight between Kosovo law enforcement and ethnic Serb gunmen at an Orthodox monastery, and reports of forces of the Republic of Serbia amassing at the border (AP, France 24, BBC). The Republic of Serbia requested to deploy forces in Kosovo in December 2022, but KFOR declined (Politico). For the purposes of this question, "firing weapons into Kosovo" means the shooting of bullets, artillery shells, rockets, offensive drones, or other munitions into the territory or airspace of Kosovo. The entering of forces or firing of weapons and the accusation of such must take place in the question's open period to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 January 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024 0% -0.07% 0% 0%
Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024 3.00% -0.43% -1.00% -4.00%
Not before 1 July 2024 97.00% +0.50% +1.00% +4.00%

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