What will be the price of natural gas in Europe on 16 February 2024?

Started Oct 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 16, 2024 08:01AM UTC

With the second winter since Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching and with supply disruptions in Australia and the Mediterranean partially offset by high storage levels, observers are keeping a close eye on the Dutch benchmark for natural gas in the EU (Euronews, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 15 February 2024 and the outcome determined using Dutch TTF Gas data (euros per megawatt hour) as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "6M").

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The question closed "Less than €25.00" with a closing date of 16 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than €25.00 51%
Between €25.00 and €40.00, inclusive 48%
More than €40.00 but less than €55.00 1%
Between €55.00 and €70.00, inclusive 0%
More than €70.00 but less than €90.00 0%
Between €90.00 and €115.00, inclusive 0%
More than €115.00 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 415
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.241178
2.
-0.185121
3.
-0.183828
4.
-0.155434
5.
-0.150239

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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