Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 16, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While President Biden and many members of Congress had pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included in the continuing resolution negotiated to prevent a government shutdown, none was included (CNBC, Colorado Public Radio). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (Government Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service).

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The question closed "Not before 16 January 2024" with a closing date of 16 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 19 November 2023 0%
Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023 1%
Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024 8%
Not before 16 January 2024 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 233
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.576
2.
-0.416
3.
-0.389
4.
-0.282

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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