Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, Ukraine has tried to restart trade via the Black Sea after the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (Yahoo, UN - Black Sea Grain Initiative, Farm Policy News). For the purposes of this question, "attacking" means striking a pertinent vessel with a weapon (e.g., bullets, missiles, but not fire hoses, throwing garbage, etc.) or deliberately ramming that vessel with another vessel.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 132 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 503 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
