Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Challenges

City University of Hong Kong Challenge Russia-Ukraine Conflict Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge In the News 2024

Tags

As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, Ukraine has tried to restart trade via the Black Sea after the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (Yahoo, UN - Black Sea Grain Initiative, Farm Policy News). For the purposes of this question, "attacking" means striking a pertinent vessel with a weapon (e.g., bullets, missiles, but not fire hoses, throwing garbage, etc.) or deliberately ramming that vessel with another vessel.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer	Crowd Forecast	Change in last 24 hours	Change in last week	Change in last month
Yes	5.57%	-0.23%	-1.23%	-3.54%
No	94.43%	+0.23%	+1.23%	+3.54%

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?

Sign up or sign in to forecast!