Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, Ukraine has tried to restart trade via the Black Sea after the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (Yahoo, UN - Black Sea Grain Initiative, Farm Policy News). For the purposes of this question, "attacking" means striking a pertinent vessel with a weapon (e.g., bullets, missiles, but not fire hoses, throwing garbage, etc.) or deliberately ramming that vessel with another vessel.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 132
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 503
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.055064
3.
-0.054525
4.
-0.053467
5.
-0.052944

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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