What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for May 2024?

Started Oct 27, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, has trended down since May 2023 as interest rates price many potential homebuyers out of the market (US News & World Report, CNBC, Yahoo). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for May 2024, typically in June (FRED). As of the launch of this question, FRED reported that housing starts totaled 1.583 million in May 2023.

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The question closed "More than 1.15 million but fewer than 1.30 million" with a closing date of 1 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.00 million 1%
Between 1.00 million and 1.15 million, inclusive 3%
More than 1.15 million but fewer than 1.30 million 10%
Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive 65%
More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million 19%
Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive 2%
More than 1.75 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 197
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.167706
2.
-0.165103
4.
-0.092677
5.
-0.091948

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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