What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for May 2024?

Started Oct 27, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, has trended down since May 2023 as interest rates price many potential homebuyers out of the market (US News & World Report, CNBC, Yahoo). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for May 2024, typically in June (FRED). As of the launch of this question, FRED reported that housing starts totaled 1.583 million in May 2023.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 1.00 million 0.70% +0.00% -2.50% -2.70%
Between 1.00 million and 1.15 million, inclusive 3.70% -0.10% -2.60% -3.10%
More than 1.15 million but fewer than 1.30 million 14.00% -0.40% +0.50% -0.30%
Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive 49.50% +1.20% +9.70% +21.50%
More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million 20.40% -0.30% -2.30% -9.30%
Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive 9.80% -0.40% -1.10% -3.80%
More than 1.75 million 1.90% +0.00% -1.70% -2.30%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username