When will the closing price for Brent crude oil next reach or exceed $130.00 per barrel?

Started Oct 27, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 23, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Concerns that the conflict in Israel and the Gaza Strip may spread have raised fears that there could be a major disruption in global energy supplies in the near future (PBS, US News & World Report, Business Standard). The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by NASDAQ (NASDAQ, set chart to "1M"). The price of Brent last approached, but never closed at or above, $130 in the weeks after Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine (CNBC).

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The question closed "Not before 24 April 2024" with a closing date of 24 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 26 December 2023 0%
Between 26 December 2023 and 23 February 2024 0%
Between 24 February 2024 and 23 April 2024 1%
Not before 24 April 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Number of Forecasts 420
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003461
2.
-0.003461
3.
-0.003461
4.
-0.003443
5.
-0.003421

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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