cosaib asks:

Will the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a CARICOM member state other than Guyana accuse Venezuela of sending military ground forces into Guyana without its permission before 3 May 2024?

Started Nov 03, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 03, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Guyana, Venezuela's eastern neighbor and the fastest growing economy in the Western Hemisphere, has voiced concerns about Venezuelan actions near its border (CARICOM, Loop News, WiredJA). For over a century, Venezuela has claimed over two-thirds of Guyanese territory as its own, and the Maduro government has scheduled a controversial referendum for 3 December 2023 to vote on Venezuela's rights to that territory (Venezuela Analysis, US News & World Report, France 24). Accusations of Venezuela sending military forces to Ankoko Island alone would not count (Demerara Waves). Accusations from Associate Members would not count (CARICOM). For the purposes of this question, "Guyana" means the internationally recognized territory of the country, and both the accusation and the sending must occur during the question's open period to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 3 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 200
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions older than 6 months: 571
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017924
2.
-0.017924
3.
-0.017838
4.
-0.017184
5.
-0.016004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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