What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2024?
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
While the US unemployment rate has ticked up from the half-century lows in April 2023, the labor market continued to show strength toward the end of the year (CNBC, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in April 2024 (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "3.6% or higher, but lower than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.6% | 1% | |
| 3.6% or higher, but lower than 4.0% | 70% | |
| 4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.4% | 28% | |
| 4.4% or higher, but lower than 4.8% | 1% | |
| 4.8% or higher, but lower than 5.2% | 0% | |
| 5.2% or higher, but lower than 5.6% | 0% | |
| 5.6% or higher, but lower than 6.0% | 0% | |
| 6.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 64 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 179 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 241 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 463 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
