What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

While the US unemployment rate has ticked up from the half-century lows in April 2023, the labor market continued to show strength toward the end of the year (CNBC, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in April 2024 (FRED).

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The question closed "3.6% or higher, but lower than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.6% 1%
3.6% or higher, but lower than 4.0% 70%
4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.4% 28%
4.4% or higher, but lower than 4.8% 1%
4.8% or higher, but lower than 5.2% 0%
5.2% or higher, but lower than 5.6% 0%
5.6% or higher, but lower than 6.0% 0%
6.0% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 241
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.049
2.
-0.036
3.
-0.034
4.
-0.034
5.
-0.032

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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