When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index next be 2.000% or lower?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia, Federal Reserve - FAQs). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index for August 2023 was 3.41090%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count.

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The question closed "Not before November 2024" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before February 2024 0%
Between February 2024 and April 2024 0%
Between May 2024 and July 2024 0%
Between August 2024 and October 2024 16%
Not before November 2024 84%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 323
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.146244
2.
-0.139957
3.
-0.117803
4.
-0.102403
5.
-0.098844

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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