When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka "Core") next be 2.000% or lower?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia, Federal Reserve - FAQs). The "core" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in October 2023 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for August 2023 was 3.80086%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before February 2024 0.06% 0% 0% -0.15%
Between February 2024 and April 2024 1.44% 0% +0.63% -2.10%
Between May 2024 and July 2024 10.03% -0.35% +0.59% -11.93%
Between August 2024 and October 2024 27.38% -0.18% -2.28% -3.41%
Not before November 2024 61.09% +0.53% +1.06% +17.59%

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