How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2024?
Started
Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 100,000 | 1.00% | 0% | -0.07% | -0.20% |
| Between 100,000 and 150,000, inclusive | 6.00% | +1.00% | +1.67% | +0.47% |
| More than 150,000 but fewer than 250,000 | 36.00% | +2.00% | +4.40% | +3.60% |
| Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive | 44.00% | -3.00% | -5.33% | -3.13% |
| More than 400,000 but fewer than 600,000 | 12.00% | 0% | -0.87% | -0.87% |
| 600,000 or more | 1.00% | 0% | +0.20% | +0.13% |