Will any of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US fail in 2024?

Started Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 sent shock waves through financial markets that regulators hope to prevent in the future (American Banker, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 30 September 2023 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 185
Number of Forecasts 407
Average for questions older than 6 months: 537
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042493
2.
-0.042493
3.
-0.042132
4.
-0.042132
5.
-0.042055

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username